NBA Draft: A mock for 2008 (and Mr. Mayo is NOT No. 1)
USC-bound guard O.J. Mayo is most-heralded freshman to enter college since…Greg Oden.
Ha! A little mock humor for the mock draft, 2008 version. Why an ‘08 mock? Because it’s never too early.
No question, Mayo has the talent to be a top pick. But it says here that the biggest name in the 2008 freshman class will not be the first pick next June — not unless he has a Kevin Durant-esque season.
Remember, folks, Mayo is a 6-foot-5 combo guard. And guards rarely go No. 1.
That’s “rarely” as in: None in the past 11 drafts.
In fact, since Allen Iverson were No. 1 in 1996, only one non-big man has been the first overall pick, and that was LeBron James in 2003.
Mayo, talented as he may be, is no LeBron….
Quickie refresher on the top picks since Iverson:
1997: Tim Duncan
1998: Michael Olowokandi
1999: Elton Brand
2000: Kenyon Martin
2001: Kwame Brown
2002: Yao Ming
2003: LeBron James
2004: Dwight Howard
2005: Andrew Bogut
2006: Andrea Bargnani
2007: Greg Oden
Knowing what we know today — and excluding Greg Oden from the discussion — I’d argue that only two of those top picks have had careers worthy of top picks:
Duncan, obviously, and James, although you could make a small case for Dwyane Wade, who went fifth that year.
Kwame Brown is a very good player, but Baron Davis and Rip Hamilton were in that draft. Yao is a stud, but Amare Stoudemire might be the best player from the ‘02 class.
Howard? Looking good, but too early to make a definitive call (Ben Gordon and Luol Deng were in that draft).
But here’s my point (finally!): Big men are at such a premium that given the choice, NBA teams always draft size. Better to miss big than miss small, as they say.
I’m not sure who will go No. 1, but I’m guessing it won’t be Mayo or any of the other uber-talented freshmen guards.
So, here’s a look at some Lottery-caliber collegians — I don’t know enough about the international players — who could/will be available next June. And yes, yes, I’ve left out some players who’ll no doubt emerge as Lottery candidates.
Eric Gordon, freshman guard, Indiana: Might be the most NBA-ready recruit to enter college this fall. If he shoots it reasonably well, scouts will salivate. Top-three pick.
Michael Beasley, freshman forward, Kansas State:
Michael Beasley The power forward is skilled and athletic.
Michael Beasleyis said to be immature, but that won’t stop NBA teams from gobbling him up early. Top-five pick.
Brook Lopez, sophomore forward, Stanford: Let’s see: He’s a 7-footer who’s mobile, athletic, smart, nasty and can hit the mid-range jumper. Top-five pick, minimum.
O.J. Mayo, freshman guard, USC: There’s so much hype that he’s bound to disappoint/put too much pressure on himself/both. Also, he’ll be playing in one of the toughest conferences in the country. Top-five pick.
Darrell Arthur, sophomore forward, Kansas: Might have been KU’s best prospect this year but elected to stay in school. Needs muscle but a huge talent. Top-10 pick.
Chase Budinger, sophomore forward, Arizona: Terrific athlete (awesome volleyball player) who is a skilled mid-range scorer. Not very good on defense. Top-10 pick.
Roy Hibbert, senior center, Georgetown: Probably would have been a Lottery Pick this year. Lacks elite athleticism but skilled and smart and … most importantly … 7-foot-2. Top-10 pick.
Derrick Rose, freshman guard, Memphis: A terrific passer who should excel in the Tigers’ warp-speed attack. Top-10 pick.
D.J. Augustin, sophomore guard, Texas: Was overshadowed by Kevin Durant last season but should blossom in 07-08. Potential to be the best point in the country. Top-15 pick.
DeVon Hardin, senior center, Cal: Would have been a first rounder had he remained in the draft. If he stays healthy, he’ll be one of the nation’s best big men. Top-15 pick.
Kevin Love, freshman center, UCLA: The best prep big man in the country last season and a guaranteed Lottery Pick whenever he leaves Westwood. Not a great athlete but strong and very skilled. Top-15 pick.
Darren Collison, junior guard, UCLA: One of the top points in the country. Fast with the ball and a defensive hawker, but NBA scouts will no doubt worry about his jumper. Top-20 pick.
Tyler Hansbrough, junior center, North Carolina: Despite big numbers at UNC, he does not project to be an elite prospect (which is why he’s back in Chapel Hill). Top-20 pick.
Tywon Lawson, sophomore guard, North Carolina: As fast with the ball as anyone in the country, but 5-foot-11 guards don’t go in the top-five. Top-20 pick.
Kyle Singler, freshman forward, Duke: Could be this season’s version of Chase Budinger, and Budinger would have been a Lottery Pick had he left school. Top-20 pick.
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