If you pay attention to Las Vegas bookmakers, the University of North Carolina is a prohibitive favorite to win the upcoming NCAA Final Four at Detroit's Ford Field based on its overwhelming 1-2 odds.
But even the most ardent Tar Heels' supporter knows winning two more games won't be easy, even as history is on UNC's side.
The Tar Heels' high hopes for a title this weekend actually began last spring when they knew they would have, in essence, the same core that reached the 2008 Final Four before losing to eventual champion Kansas. The decision of future NBA draft picks like Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington to put off the pros for at least a year meant their legacy wouldn't be written until this weekend.
Given how well the Tar Heels have played in their first four 2009 tournament games, it appears clear the experience they have gained in previous years has paid off. Particularly when it comes to recognizing the energy and intensity a team needs to "survive and advance"
in the single-elimination tournament. Look no further than the Tar Heels' response to its only challenge thus far in this year's tournament from LSU in Greensboro two weeks ago. While the Tigers appeared to have UNC on the ropes in the middle of the second half, the Tar Heels found another gear and rolled to a 14-point victory.
Add in the relative historical success of repeat Final Four participants and UNC fans should feel pretty good entering this weekend.
Typically, the experience of getting to a Final Four a second straight time has paid off big in the past. And while some of the previous repeat participants have strung together streaks longer than two years - UCLA went to an unprecedented 10 straight Final Fours from 1967-76 - return trips have usually been beneficial.
ACC schools clearly have enjoyed them.
North Carolina's first NCAA championship under coach Dean Smith in 1982 behind tournament MVP James Worthy of Gastonia came after the Tar Heels lost the '81 title game to Indiana.
Duke's Final Four disappointments were becoming commonplace before the Blue Devils won back-to-back titles in 1991 and 1992 - or after the embarrassing 1990 finals loss to UNLV and in the final two years of their ACC-record five straight Final Four appearances.
Maryland's lone NCAA title in 2002 came one year after a disappointing loss to eventual champion Duke in the 2001 semifinals.
But teams also have suffered during repeat performances.
The Tar Heels first three trips to the Final Four with Smith as head coach from 1967 to 1969 ended with finishes of 4th, 2nd and 4th, respectively, due largely to the fact they came during UCLA's dominating three-year title run with Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.
And you don't have to have a long memory to recall UCLA's three straight misses from 2006 to 2008. Or UNC's back-to-back semifinal losses in 1997 and 1998. Or Michigan's title-game losses to Duke and North Carolina in 1992 and 1993, respectively, with the "Fab Five"
that included current Charlotte Bobcats forward Juwan Howard.
The real answer this weekend may come in how the Tar Heels' handle the favorite's role. Do they play not to lose like they did when the went 1-1 as the top seed in the ACC tournament that preceded the current four-game winning streak? Or do they play like a team with a purpose as we've seen in both games this season against Duke and in the current tournament run?
