EAST REGIONAL
1. North Carolina
Point guard Ty Lawson missed a good portion of the conference season with an ankle injury, and the Tar Heels will need his quickness to get them deep into the tournament. Tyler Hansbrough is tough and effective, but Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington will determine their postseason fate.
Comment: Only Heels' suspect defense threatens Final Four run.
2. Tennessee
The Vols' pressing and three-point shooting and Bruce Pearl's outlandish jackets and suspenders make for great TV viewing. No one is better at making contested three-pointers than Chris Lofton, who must have a big game every time out at this point.
Comment: One bad game and the Vols are gone.
3. Louisville
A mediocre team at the start of the season, the Cardinals got better and better as the season wore on. The return of David Padgett made a big difference, and Edgar Sosa is a smarter guard this season. Rick Pitino and his press are dangerous commodities in the postseason.
Comment: Seeing Pitino on the opposing bench causes concern.
4. Washington State
This team is not built for postseason success, because they have limited ways to score. However, their defense is second to none, and Kyle Weaver is the epitome of an all-around player. The Cougars need Derrick Low to be hot from long range and for Aron Baynes to be a factor inside.
Comment: Expert says your guess is as good as his.
5. Notre Dame
The big guy in the middle, Luke Harangody, gets all the media attention, and rightly so, but the Irish's postseason success will depend on guard Kyle McAlarney. When he struggles to score, the Irish usually lose. Great at home, Notre Dame was only average on the road.
Comment: If Irish miss from afar, their postseason will be short.
6. Oklahoma
You don't hear as much about forward Blake Griffin, but some think he's the best freshman in the country. He had knee surgery on March 2, then had 14 points and eight rebounds in 28 minutes six days later. The issue is point-guard play, which is critical at this point.
Comment: Not enough good guards.
7. Butler
The Bulldogs have become the Midwest version of Gonzaga, a national power in a low-profile conference. A.J. Graves is lauded for his shooting, but Mike Green was the Horizon League Player of the Year.
Comment: Backcourt experience often means postseason success.
8. Indiana
Not nearly as good a team under Dan Dakich as they were under Kelvin Sampson, the Hoosiers look vulnerable. But with players as talented as D.J. White and Eric Gordon, they have the ability to beat nearly anyone. Armon Bassett needs to be hitting his threes for the Hoosiers to win.
Comment: Momentum going the wrong way.
9. Arkansas
Forward Sonny Weems was the team's best player this season, surprisingly stealing the spotlight from guard Patrick Beverley. But Beverley has regained his freshman form lately and may carry the Hogs' postseason hopes for first-year coach John Pelphrey.
Comment: If Beverley plays well, Hogs are a threat.
10. South Alabama
A win over Mississippi State and close road losses to Mississippi and Vanderbilt prove the Jaguars belong in this company. Guard Demetric Bennett, the Sun Belt player of the year, certainly belongs in this company. He had 39 points against Mississippi State.
Comment: Looking for a surprise team? This may be it.
11. St. Joseph's
Coach Phil Martelli is always good for a laugh, and 6-10 Pat Calathes may be the tallest guard in history as well as being an NBA prospect. Besides the late-season win against Xavier, though, there is nothing special about the Hawks, except that they are tall.
Comment: Catch Martelli's act while you can.
12. George Mason
Two starters from the Final Four team of two yeas ago (Will Thomas and Folarin Campbell) are still around, and this team did something the 2006 Patriots did not - win the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. They have wins over Dayton and Kansas State.
Comment: Maybe one upset win, but no storybook run this time.
13. Winthrop
This Big South team is in the NCAAs for the eighth time in 10 years, so they know what to expect, even if most people don't know where the school is located (Rock Hill, S.C.). Three current starters were starters on the team that upset Notre Dame in the first round last year.
Comment: Not as good as last year.
14. Boise State
Forward Reggie Larry is from Newark, N.J., and he is the man for the Broncos, who are second nationally in field-goal percentage at 50.9 percent. They made up for their ugly nonconference loss to Loyola Marymount with a win over Brigham Young.
Comment: Do 25 wins much coming out of the WAC?
15. American
The Eagles are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time after winning the Patriot League (which has the highest graduation rate of all Division I conferences, by the way). Guard Garrison Carr is a standout shooter. Former Virginia coach and player Jeff Jones is the coach.
Comment: One game and back to Washington, D.C.
*16. Mount St. Mary's
This school, located in Emmitsburg, Md., finished tied for fourth in the Northeast Conference, so the Mountaineers pose no threat. But for sheer viewing pleasure it's fun to watch point guard Jeremy Goode, whose speed with the ball is something to behold.
Comment: Long name, short stay.
*16. Coppin State
The Hawks started the season 4-19 start and finished tied for seventh in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. But Fang Mitchell's team won 12 of its final 13 games, and in 1997, as the No. 15 seed, they upset No. 2 seed South Carolina in the NCAA Tournament.
Comment: Gotta love a team whose coach's name is Fang.
[More at www.sfgate.com]
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